Your Storm Risk

How the Outbreak Unfolds Hour by Hour

• Sun Afternoon — Storms rapidly develop across Nebraska and SE South Dakota — very large hail likely
• Sun 4–10 PM CT — HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT: Eastern Nebraska, SE South Dakota, western Iowa — Omaha, Lincoln, Sioux City at risk
• Sun–Mon Night — Overnight storms may linger into Monday morning, affecting afternoon storm energy in affected areas
• Mon Afternoon — Widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak — supercells likely produce EF2+ tornadoes and very large hail. Central/eastern Kansas, SE Nebraska, NW Missouri in highest risk zone
• Mon Evening — Damaging winds become primary threat. Isolated tornadoes still possible overnight.
• Tue Morning — Ongoing thunderstorms from N. Texas to Michigan — still capable of severe weather
• Tue Afternoon — Cold front takes over as storm trigger. Tornado risk diminishes — hail and wind remain threats.

May is the heart of tornado season in the Plains and Midwest — and this outbreak could be one of the more significant events of the spring. A strong jet stream surge is set to collide with unusually deep moisture, creating the kind of textbook setup that meteorologists watch with serious concern.

The Monday event carries the highest tornado potential. As jet stream energy peaks, supercell thunderstorms developing in the afternoon will have ample fuel — the kind of conditions that can produce long-track, violent tornadoes. Central and eastern Kansas, southeastern Nebraska, and northwestern Missouri sit in the highest-risk corridor.

Hazard Risk by Region — Monday Peak Threat

The Wildfire Threat — A Deadly Combination

Normal Spring Conditions

• 40–60% Relative Humidity Typical spring Plains
• 15 mph Average Wind Speed Typical conditions
• Moist soil and green fuels
• Controlled burns manageable

This Weekend's Forecast

• <10% Relative Humidity Critically dry — life-threatening
• 50 mph Wind Gusts Fire spread rate: extreme
• Dry fuels, zero precipitation
• ANY ignition becomes a threat to life

The same powerful weather system driving tornadoes in the Central Plains is simultaneously pulling extremely dry and windy air across the Southern High Plains. The National Weather Service has issued a Level 3-of-3 'Extremely Critical' fire threat — its highest category — for areas from southwestern Kansas through the Texas Panhandle and into northeastern New Mexico.

Sustained winds of 25–30 mph with gusts reaching 50 mph, combined with relative humidity dropping below 10%, will cause any fire that ignites to spread at a life-threatening pace. A Level 2 critical threat extends across a much wider area including much of New Mexico.

What Each Tornado Rating Means — Know the Scale

How Storm-Ready Are You?

Five quick questions. Find out if you'd survive a real tornado warning.

How would you get a tornado warning at 2 AM while asleep?

• Wireless Emergency Alert on my phone — Good — but make sure your phone's WEA alerts are enabled and the ringer isn't silenced.
• NOAA Weather Radio (battery/hand-crank) — This is the gold standard — it works even when cell service is down.
• I'd hear sirens outside — Outdoor sirens are NOT designed to wake people indoors — they're for people outside. Do not rely on them.
• I'm not sure — This is critical — download a weather alert app tonight and enable push notifications. Consider a NOAA weather radio.

Where would you shelter in a tornado if you have no basement?

• Interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows — Correct — a bathroom, closet, or hallway in the center of your lowest floor. Cover your head.
• Under a highway overpass — This is a DEADLY myth. Overpasses create wind tunnels and offer zero tornado protection. Never shelter here.
• In my car, driving away from the storm — Only if you can drive at right angles to the tornado's path and have clear roads. Never try to outrun a tornado in traffic.
• On an upper floor away from windows — Upper floors are more dangerous in tornadoes — the roof is most vulnerable. Always go LOW.

You're in a mobile home when a tornado warning is issued. What do you do?

• Leave immediately for a sturdy building — Correct. Mobile homes offer virtually no protection — even with tie-downs. Evacuate to a permanent structure immediately.
• Shelter in the most interior room — This is extremely dangerous. Mobile homes are the deadliest place to be in a tornado. Leave now.
• Lie in a low ditch or culvert nearby — A last resort if no building is accessible — but the best option is a sturdy permanent building.
• Call 911 to ask what to do — There's no time to call. Act immediately — 911 lines will be overwhelmed and seconds count.

What emergency supplies do you have ready right now?

• Fully stocked kit: water, flashlight, first aid, phone charger, documents — Excellent. Make sure your kit is accessible from your shelter location.
• Some basics — flashlight and maybe some water — A good start. Add a portable phone charger, first aid kit, and copies of important documents this week.
• I'd grab things when the time comes — Dangerous plan — you may have less than 60 seconds. Pre-stage your kit in your shelter location NOW.
• Nothing prepared — Please act today. FEMA recommends 72 hours of supplies. Even a bag with water, snacks, and a charger is a start.

A tornado warning is issued while you're driving. Visibility drops to near zero. You should:

• Pull into a sturdy gas station or building immediately — Best option. A solid structure is far safer than your vehicle.
• Buckle up, stay in the car, park below the roadway level if possible — Acceptable last resort — stay belted, keep your head below windows, cover with a blanket if available.
• Accelerate to outrun the tornado — Tornadoes can move 60+ mph and change direction suddenly. You cannot outrun one in traffic.
• Shelter under a highway overpass — This is one of the most dangerous places to be. The overpass creates a dangerous wind tunnel effect.

May Tornado Season — By the Numbers

• 276 — Avg. US Tornadoes in May
• EF3+ — This Outbreak's Peak Possible
• 3 — Days of Severe Weather
• 50 — Max Wind Gusts (Fire Zone)
• <10% — Humidity in Fire Zones
• 30 mph — Sustained Winds — Fire Threat

Tornado Myths — Busted

Hiding under a highway overpass is safe during a tornado.

Verdict: false

This is one of the most dangerous tornado myths. Overpasses act as wind tunnels, actually increasing wind speeds. Several people have died sheltering under overpasses.

Opening windows before a tornado equalizes pressure and protects your home.

Verdict: false

This wastes precious seconds and does nothing to protect your home. The pressure difference from a tornado is so extreme it makes no difference. Use your shelter time to get to safety.

The southwest corner of a basement is the safest place in a tornado.

Verdict: mostly false

No single corner is universally safest. Debris falls from the roof — the most important thing is to be under a sturdy table or mattress, not in a specific corner.

Tornadoes can't cross rivers or mountains.

Verdict: false

Tornadoes cross rivers, lakes, and mountains regularly. Geographic features do not stop them.

A tornado's color tells you how dangerous it is.

Verdict: mixed

Color reflects the debris a tornado is carrying — a dark or black tornado typically contains lots of debris, suggesting it's near the ground and dangerous. But white or gray tornadoes can be equally deadly.

Why Is Monday the Most Dangerous Day?

Monday's setup is concerning because it combines all the key ingredients for violent tornadoes at once. A powerful surge of jet stream energy — the 'biggest' of the outbreak period — will interact with unusually deep moisture pooling across the Plains.

What forecasters are watching carefully is the role of Sunday night's storms. If those storms and their cloud cover linger into Monday morning, they can actually reduce the threat in some areas by cutting off the surface heating that fuels afternoon tornadoes. It's a classic forecasting uncertainty: what looks like the worst-case scenario on paper might be partially 'protected' by its own previous storm activity.

But in areas where skies clear Monday morning, conditions will be ripe for textbook supercell development. Supercells are rotating thunderstorms capable of producing the most powerful, long-lasting tornadoes. The highest risk corridor — central and eastern Kansas into southeastern Nebraska and northwestern Missouri — is historically fertile ground for exactly this type of event.

What To Do Before Storms Arrive

1. Enable wireless emergency alerts — Go to your phone's settings now and confirm WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) are turned ON. Tornado warnings will buzz your phone even if it's silenced.
2. Identify your shelter location — Find the lowest floor, most interior room of the most solid building you have access to. If you have no basement, an interior bathroom or closet works. Pre-stage a flashlight and shoes there.
3. Know your neighborhood's sirens — but don't rely on them — Outdoor warning sirens are for people who are outside. They are NOT designed to wake you indoors. A weather radio or phone alert is essential.
4. Charge all devices now — A fully charged phone and portable battery bank could be critical after a severe storm. Don't wait until a warning is issued.
5. If you live in a mobile home, know your evacuation plan — Mobile homes offer little protection from tornadoes even with tie-downs. Identify the nearest permanent, sturdy building you can reach on foot before any storm season day.
6. Monitor NWS forecasts Sunday morning — The exact tornado threat areas will sharpen significantly by Sunday morning. Check weather.gov or your local NWS office for updated outlooks.

Essential Severe Weather Resources

• National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center: The official source for severe weather outlooks — updated multiple times daily during active periods.
• Your Local NWS Office: Find your local National Weather Service forecast office for region-specific warnings and updates.
• Sign Up for Local Emergency Alerts: Register your phone, address, and email for local emergency management alerts in your county.
• NOAA Weather App: Download the official NWS app for real-time severe weather alerts, radar, and forecasts for your exact location.