Here in Cincinnati, the lunch math is playing out in break rooms and drive-throughs every day. Grocery prices have risen 2.7% over the past year — that stings at Kroger. But eating out has climbed even faster, up 3.4%, with fast-food prices up roughly 3%. The result: the gap between packing and buying is not closing — it's holding steady or widening.

Peter McHenry, an economics professor who studies consumer decision-making, says people often underestimate how stable that gap really is. When both sides of the equation rise together, your relative savings from packing lunch barely budge.

I think it's pretty clear that if you want to save money then you can pretty clearly get food for a lower price if you prepare the right food at homePeter McHenry, Paul R. Verkuil Professor of Public Policy and Economics and Department Chair

But McHenry is quick to point out that lunch isn't just a line item — and that's exactly the kind of thinking that makes economics more nuanced than a simple price comparison. When you pack your lunch and eat at your desk, you save money. But you might also miss the casual conversation at the taqueria around the corner where your whole team goes on Thursdays.

That trade-off is real. Nutrition, social connection, and even mental health are all part of the full cost of a daily decision that most Cincinnati workers make on autopilot.

The Full Lunch Breakdown

Packing my lunch has consequences for sure... how much money I spend, but also nutrition, because that could differ at a restaurant, also relationships that I have. So, if I pack my lunch and eat it in my office alone, that's different than going out to the restaurant that all my coworkers are going out toPeter McHenry, Paul R. Verkuil Professor of Public Policy and Economics and Department Chair

How Lunch-Smart Are You?

Four questions. Test what you know about the real economics of your midday meal.

Grocery prices rose 2.7% over the past year. Eating-out prices rose 3.4%. What does that mean for the savings from packing lunch?

• The gap gets bigger — packing becomes relatively cheaper — Close intuition, but not quite. Because both sides rose, the relative difference shifts only slightly. An economist notes the comparison 'might not change all that much' when prices move together.
• The gap stays roughly the same — Correct. When grocery and restaurant prices both rise, the proportional difference between them barely moves — meaning your packed-lunch savings remain fairly stable, not dramatically larger.
• The gap shrinks — restaurants become relatively cheaper — Not quite. Restaurant costs rose faster (3.4%) than grocery costs (2.7%), so if anything, eating out got comparatively more expensive — not less.
• It depends entirely on your zip code — Local factors matter, but the broader principle is about the rate of change on each side. Nationally, the gap holds roughly steady when both sides rise in similar proportions.

A fully loaded packed lunch — sandwich, fruit, a drink, and a snack — costs about how much based on a review of grocery receipts?

• $1.50 — Lower than the reviewed figure. A recent receipt review put a complete packed lunch — sandwich, fruit, drink, and snack — at about $3.
• $3 — That's the figure from a review of recent grocery receipts. At $3 per lunch, five days a week, you're spending roughly $780 a year — far below even the cheapest fast-food habit.
• $5 — A bit high. The receipt review found a full packed lunch comes in around $3 — though premium ingredients could push it closer to this figure.
• $7 — That's closer to the low end of a fast-food value meal ($8), not a packed lunch. The grocery receipt review put a complete home-packed lunch at about $3.

What does a sit-down lunch with tip average, according to the data in this story?

• $12 — That's below the reported average. Once tip is factored in, a typical sit-down lunch runs about $18 — six times the cost of a packed lunch.
• $15 — Close, but the reported average with tip is $18. That difference adds up: one extra sit-down lunch per week over a year costs you an additional $156 versus packing.
• $18 — Correct. A sit-down lunch with tip averages $18 — making it the most expensive of the three options and roughly six times the cost of a $3 packed lunch.
• $22 — Above the reported average. The figure cited is $18 with tip — though restaurant price increases of 3.4% over the past year mean that number is still climbing.

An economist says the true cost of packing vs. buying lunch includes more than money. Which of the following does he specifically name as a real consequence?

• Only the financial savings matter for most workers — The economist's point is the opposite — he specifically names non-financial factors like nutrition and relationships as genuine parts of the decision.
• Nutrition and workplace relationships — Exactly right. Peter McHenry specifically named nutrition and relationships — particularly the social dynamic of eating with coworkers — as real consequences that belong in the lunch calculation alongside dollars.
• Carbon footprint and packaging waste — Environmental factors weren't named in the analysis. McHenry focused on nutrition, relationships, money, and time as the core variables workers should weigh.
• Calorie count and delivery fees — Neither delivery fees nor calorie counts were specifically cited. The factors McHenry named were nutrition broadly, workplace relationships, money, and time.

McHenry's broader framework applies far beyond lunch — it's a template for any financial decision. Every choice carries a cost beyond the price tag: your time, your energy, your relationships. The lunch question just happens to be one most Cincinnati workers face 250 times a year.

The next Consumer Price Index — which will update both grocery and restaurant price data — is scheduled for release on Aug. 12. That report may shift the numbers, but based on recent trends, experts say the fundamental comparison is unlikely to change dramatically.

How to Actually Save on Lunch This Week

1. Know your baseline number — Run your own lunch math: days out per week multiplied by your usual spend, times 52. Most workers are surprised by the annual total — even a modest fast-food habit clears $2,000 a year.
2. Price a full packed lunch at Kroger — A sandwich, piece of fruit, a drink, and a snack runs about $3 based on recent receipt reviews. That's $780 a year for a daily packed habit — the floor for comparison.
3. Factor in the full cost — not just dollars — An economist advises thinking through every resource you give up: time to prep, the social lunch you miss, the nutrition difference. Some days, the $18 sit-down is worth it. Make that call consciously.
4. Watch the Aug. 12 CPI release — The next Consumer Price Index update from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics drops Aug. 12. Check whether grocery and restaurant price trends are converging or diverging — it changes your savings equation.

Track the Numbers Yourself

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index: The official source for grocery and restaurant price trends. The next CPI update is scheduled for Aug. 12.

Sources & References

• Primary source: Scripps News — Scripps News Group
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index — grocery and restaurant price increases over the past year