For Denver workers, this isn't an abstract economics debate — it's Tuesday at noon. The numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirm what grocery shoppers and drive-through regulars already feel: everything is more expensive. But the rate at which each option is climbing matters.
Groceries rose 2.7% over the past year. Restaurant prices — including fast food — rose faster, at 3.4% and 3% respectively. That gap is exactly why economist Peter McHenry cautions against assuming the comparison has shifted as much as it feels like it has.
What Does Lunch Actually Cost?
| Packed Lunch | Fast Food Combo | Sit-Down Restaurant | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cost per meal | $3 | $8 – $14 | $18 |
| Cost per week (5 days) | $15 | $40 – $70 | $90 |
| Cost per year (50 weeks) | $750 | $2,000 – $3,500 | $4,500 |
| Price increase (past year) | +2.7% | +3% | +3.4% |
| Social factor | Eat alone | Quick with coworkers | Full social lunch |
| Time required | Prep + commute | Drive or walk out | Full lunch hour |
Packing my lunch has consequences for sure... how much money I spend, but also nutrition, because that could differ at a restaurant, also relationships that I have. So, if I pack my lunch and eat it in my office alone, that's different than going out to the restaurant that all my coworkers are going out to,Peter McHenry, Paul R. Verkuil Professor of Public Policy and Economics and Department Chair
That's the part of the lunch calculus that doesn't show up on a receipt. McHenry, who studies economic decision-making, points out that the packed-lunch question is actually a useful lens for how we think about all financial choices — because it forces you to name what you're really optimizing for.
For Denver workers in open-plan offices or coworking spaces, the social dimension can be significant. The coworker relationships built over a sit-down lunch, or even a shared fast-food run, carry professional value that is hard to quantify but real. McHenry's advice isn't to ignore that — it's to name it honestly when you're doing the math.
Common Lunch-Money Myths, Checked
Grocery prices are rising faster than restaurant prices, so packing lunch is losing its advantage.
Verdict: false
The opposite is true. Grocery prices rose 2.7% over the past year, while eating out climbed 3.4% and fast food rose 3%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Restaurant prices are outpacing grocery prices.
With inflation hitting both sides, it doesn't really matter which you choose.
Verdict: mostly false
Economist Peter McHenry notes that if both sides rise at similar rates, the comparison doesn't shift much — but the baseline difference is enormous. A $3 packed lunch versus an $8–$18 bought lunch means packing is still dramatically cheaper in absolute terms.
Packing lunch is always the right financial decision.
Verdict: mixed
McHenry argues the decision involves more than money: nutrition, time, and workplace relationships are all legitimate costs. He says think about 'every resource that you give up' — not just dollars.
Price Increases Over the Past Year
McHenry's Framework for Any Lunch Decision
- Name your actual goal — Saving money, saving time, eating better, or staying connected with coworkers? McHenry says you have to name it honestly before the math makes sense.
- Count all the costs — not just money — Time spent prepping, the relationships you skip when you eat alone, the nutrition difference — these are real costs that belong in your calculation.
- Compare the right options — A $3 packed lunch versus an $18 sit-down is not a fair daily comparison for most workers. Compare what you'd realistically buy versus what you'd realistically pack.
- Watch both price trends — The Bureau of Labor Statistics next Consumer Price Index release is scheduled for Aug. 12. Restaurant prices have been rising faster than grocery prices — track whether that gap widens.
For Denver workers trying to stretch a paycheck amid rising costs, the lunch decision is one of the few daily expenses they can actually control. Groceries are up — but restaurant bills are up more. And the single clearest thing the numbers show is that a $3 packed lunch remains the lowest-cost option by a wide margin, regardless of how prices move on either side.
McHenry's broader economic lesson lands here too. The lunch question isn't trivial — it's a daily practice in thinking clearly about trade-offs. Money, time, nutrition, relationships. Naming what you're actually giving up is the first step to making a choice you can stick with.
Stay Ahead of Price Changes
- Next Consumer Price Index: Aug. 12: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases updated inflation data including food and restaurant price changes on August 12. Grocery and restaurant price trends will both be updated.
- Track CPI Data Yourself: The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes monthly CPI data broken down by food category — including food at home versus food away from home.